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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Blitz of proposed power plants a mixed bag
Announcements to build new electricity generators continue unabated in the Northwest. Wind power's quick build time has propelled it to the fore as a clean, cost-effective alternative to gas-fired power plants, still the dominant new generation technology. But rising gas costs have brought coal and nuclear power back from the dead as potentially acceptable forms of new generation, and sustained high market prices have prompted rapid proliferation of diesel and other dirty emergency generators.
Proposed, permitted and under construction gas-fired power plants now number 34 for a combined capacity of 17,900 megawatts (MWs). Four of those facilities, totaling 1,580 MWs, are under construction with two expected on line in July. The other two will begin operating by mid-2002 or early 2003. Regional analysts predict as much as 5,000 MWs of additional gas-fired generation could be operating within the next five years. For comparison, about 1150 average megawatts are required to power the city of Seattle . The states of Washington and Oregon host the majority of proposed facilities due to their transmission and natural gas pipeline infrastructure, land and water availability, and population density.
For more than a decade, natural gas-fired power plants have been touted as a safer, cleaner, cheaper alternative to older thermal generation technologies. But concerns over rising prices and restricted pipeline capacity quelled some enthusiasm for gas burners and revived interest in coal and nuclear generation.
The first new coal plant in the region has been proposed in Blaine, Washington, with a capacity of 249 MWs. The developer, U.S. Electric Cherry Point , claims the proposed facility will rely on ³clean coal² technology. But critics say coal-fired generation remains the nation's most polluting power generation, and they point to the devastating environmental impacts of coal mining.
The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA ) has contracted a study to examine the feasibility and cost of finishing construction and starting operations at the Washington Nuclear Power Plant #1 , permitted in 1974 at Hanford . Original construction terminated in 1982 after seven years. Initial estimates, put the up-front cost of completing WNP-1 at $3 billion to $4 billion, or three to four times more than the initial cost of building a comparable gas plant.
Bringing coal, gas or nuclear power generators on line takes years, even after permits are granted. Manufacturers of combined cycle combustion turbines are backlogged, with new orders taking three years to fill. A typical gas power plant takes approximately two years to construct. Coal and nuclear plants take even longer, and tend to face serious local opposition.
Diesel generators, however, can be permitted and begin operating in less than two months. According to the Northwest Power Planning Council , 380 MWs of diesel capacity is already in operation at nearly two dozen ³generator farms,² and more than 400 MWs of additional diesel generation is planned for 24 locations. Diesel and other back up generators will likely continue to run until the market delivers sustained prices below the technologies' typical operational cost of between 15 and 19 cents per kilowatthour.
While emphasis remains on fossil fuels, wind power is rapidly gaining interest and attention from developers, utilities, policy makers and landowners. The Stateline Wind Project , which is already under construction and expected to be on line by the end of the year, is on the leading edge of a wave of proposed wind projects.
In response to a request for proposals (RFP) seeking the development of 1,000 MWs of wind power, BPA reported receiving 25 proposals totaling about 2,600 MWs, with potential for expansion up to 4,000 MWs. BPA also recently agreed to purchase 150 MWs from the Maiden Wind Farm , located about 10 miles from Rattlesnake Mountain in central Washington.
In addition, the Northwest Cooperative Development Center , an alliance of rural electric and other cooperatives recently unveiled plans for its Last Mile Electric Cooperative with a goal of developing 2,000 MWs of wind capacity through commercial partnerships. Wind projects totaling 900 to 1,200 MWs of capacity are already underway in the Northwest.
The Northwest remains at a critical crossroads. Utility investments in energy efficiency are beginning to rebound from the crash of the mid-1990s. But even at the current pace, the region will still leave a vast reservoir of cost-effective conservation untapped. While conservation remains an elusive concept for policymakers, the unneeded power plants built as a result of failing to tap into our cleanest, cheapest resource, are sure to leave a lasting impression.
Heather Rhoads-Weaver, Danielle Dixon & Mark Glyde